Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 47.55%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 26.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Moldova win was 0-1 (7.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.