Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 24.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Kazakhstan win was 0-1 (6.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.