Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 26.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Moldova win was 0-1 (7.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.