Separated by just three points and two places in the Serie A standings, Internacional and Bragantino meet at Beira-Rio on Friday.
A win could help the home side leapfrog their visitors in the Campeonato Brasileiro, though the Red Bull-backed club are unbeaten in six matches coming into the game.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a sluggish start to the season saw Internacional closer to the relegation zone than the top half of the Serie A table - as they won just two of their first 11 outings - the Porto Alegre giants' form since has helped them into contention for a Copa Libertadores place next year.
Approaching Sunday's fixture with Palmeiras following a run of five wins from seven games, Diego Aguirre's men were confident of returning home with another three points as they arrived in Sao Paulo. However, when the ball struck the hand of defender Victor Cuesta inside the area just after the half-time break, the referee awarded a penalty and events that followed proved pivotal.
Edenilson, a journeyman midfielder recently called up to the Brazilian national team due to some superb form over the past few months, took his protests too far and was shown a red card, leaving Internacional down to 10 men with 40 minutes still to play. Following a VAR review, the spot-kick was confirmed, and Raphael Veiga then stepped up to strike home what proved to be the winning goal for the Alviverde.
That setback leaves Inter seventh in the standings following the weekend's action, but they have little time to dwell on any perceived injustice as the Brasileiro continues apace, with Bragantino's visit set to be followed by another home fixture against Corinthians on Sunday.
Though they have not met in the league so far this term, Inter held the edge over their next opponents during both games last year, and know that a three-goal victory would even take them above Braga in the table - a major turnaround following the pair's respective starts to 2021.
© Reuters
While Inter were struggling to get going early in the current campaign, Bragantino began at full throttle, but have since settled into a role as one of several top-four contenders behind leaders Atletico Mineiro.
An entertaining weekend draw at Ceara saw the Braganca-based team slip to fifth in the standings, but they are still just four points off second spot and have everything to play for in the final third of the season.
That 2-2 result at Castelao also extends Braga's unbeaten run in all competitions to six games, and they will be looking to break new ground for a previously modest club when they contest the Copa Sudamericana final against Athletico Paranaense next month.
Mauricio Barbieri's side have recently beaten Internacional's weekend conquerors Palmeiras and enjoyed a 1-0 victory over Atletico Goianiense in the last midweek round; going undefeated since a loss to Fluminense at the end of last month.
However, they have yet to take even a point off Inter since their elevation to the elite two years ago, so on Friday, will hope to end that record and keep one of their chief rivals for a Copa Libertadores spot at bay.
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Diego Aguirre will be without one of his most consistent performers on Friday, as Edenilson returned from national duty with the Selecao to feature in the starting XI last time out, only to be sent off, meaning the versatile midfielder must now serve a suspension.
Internacional will also be without Bruno Mendez and Paolo Guerrero, who are still sidelined with thigh and knee injuries respectively.
In Guerrero's continued absence, 18-goal striker Yuri Alberto should start again up front, while Mauricio is among those hoping to deputise for Edenilson on the right.
Meanwhile, Bragantino have striker Ytalo out of action after he contracted COVID-19 last week and entered self-isolation. Venezuelan forward Jan Hurtado should therefore start as the visitors' centre-forward.
Midfield regular Ramires will be back in the fold after being suspended at the weekend though, while Leo Ortiz also returns from a ban and should make the bench.
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Lomba; Saravia, Mercado, V. Cuesta, Moises; Lindoso, Dourado, Taison; Mauricio, Patrick, Alberto
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Aderlan, Bruno, Natan, Candido; Jadsom, Ramires, Helinho; Pedrinho, Cuello, Hurtado
We say: Internacional 1-1 Bragantino
While Bragantino are one of the division's top scorers, their hosts have improved defensively and can hold them to a draw at Beira-Rio.
Inter can get back on the goal trail following a rare goalless 90 minutes, but are likely to come up short of the win required to catch consistent Braga in the standings.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 52.3%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Bragantino had a probability of 22.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.11%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Bragantino win it was 0-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.
