Brazilian side Internacional host Paraguayan outfit Olimpia for the second leg of their last-16 tie in the Copa Libertadores on Friday.
This will be the fourth meeting between the two teams in this year's competition, with Internacional winning two group-stage matches before playing out a goalless draw in last week's first leg.
Match preview
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Internacional had no problems in finding the net against Olimpia during the group stages – scoring seven goals in two games – but they were unable to score last week. They also had just three shots on target, less than half of what they managed in the previous two matches.
Last week's result extended a run without scoring to three games across all competitions, until they secured a narrow 1-0 win against 10-man Juventude in the Brasileiro on Monday.
Thiago Galhardo's 51st-minute strike was enough to claim all three points for just the third time in this season's Brazilian top flight after 12 matches played.
Internacional's domestic campaign has been far from impressive. The Colorado, who finished in second place last season, currently sit 13th in the table and five points above the relegation zone.
Diego Aguirre will be slightly concerned by his side's current run of form, winning just one of their last seven games in all competitions, but after thrashing Olimpia 6-1 on home soil just two months ago, they are sure to feel confident of claiming another victory against them on Friday and progressing into the quarter-finals.
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Since that heavy 6-1 defeat to Internacional, Olimpia have shown signs of improvement against their Brazilian counterparts, which will have pleased head coach Sergio Orteman.
Last week's clean sheet was their first in this season's competition, though they continue to concede domestically. For the ninth successive game, Olimpia failed to keep the ball out of their own net as they were beaten 3-1 at home to River Plate Asuncion in the Paraguayan Clausura on Sunday.
El Decano also struggled defensively in Group B of the Copa Libertadores, conceding 14 goals from their six matches; only three other teams conceded more goals during the group stage.
Olimpia – three time Copa Libertadores winners – head into Friday's game knowing that a score draw would be enough to see them progress on away goals.
Orteman's side have failed to advance from the round of 16 in each of the last five seasons, but they now have a good opportunity to end this run if they can produce a strong performance in Brazil.
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Team News
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Internacional remain without Paolo Guerrero (knee), Ze Gabriel (thigh) and Rodrigo Moledo (knee) due to injury.
Renzo Saravia is also unavailable with a thigh problem, so Heitor is expected to keep his place at right-back, joining Bruno Mendez, Victor Cuesta and Moises in the back four.
Either Yuri Alberto or Galhardo – who have scored a combined 19 goals so far this season – are set to start as the lone striker, with the latter expected to get the nod.
As for Olimpia, right-back Sergio Otalvaro is back after serving a one-match suspension and will be in contention to start ahead of Victor Salazar.
After using a 4-3-3 system in the 6-1 defeat to Internacional, Orteman switched to a 4-4-2 formation for the last two fixtures against them, and he is expected to stick with this on Friday.
Isidro Pitta was handed a start up front alongside Jorge Recalde in the first leg, though he could be replaced by either Walter Gonzalez or Roque Sana Cruz this time around.
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Heitor, Ribeiro, Cuesta, Moises; Edenilson, Dourado; Vidal, Mauricio, Patrick; Galhardo
Olimpia possible starting lineup:
Aguilar; Benitez, Alcaraz, Salcedo, I. Torres; Silva, Orzusa, Ortiz, Estigarribia; W. Gonzalez, Recalde
We say: Internacional 2-1 Olimpia (2-1 on aggregate)
After a cagey first leg last week, we are expecting a more open game on Friday, with both teams hoping to rediscover their form in front of goal.
There is little to separate the two sides, with neither in the best of form, but having won twice already against Olimpia, Internacional may have the edge that sees them claim a narrow victory in Porto Alegre.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 48.38%. A win for Olimpia had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Olimpia win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%).
