Two clubs who have experienced very different seasons so far meet in MLS on Wednesday as Eastern Conference leaders New England Revolution travel to bottom of the table Inter Miami.
This will be the first ever fixture between the two sides, as they did not meet in Inter Miami's inaugural campaign last year due to MLS's Covid-19-enforced restructured format.
Match preview
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Revs picked up three points for the first time in four matches on Saturday as they won 1-0 away at Atlanta United thanks to Gustavo Bou's 18th-minute goal – two years to the day since his MLS debut.
It was their first clean sheet in six games since the end of May - despite sitting top of the table, they have the fourth worst defensive record in the Eastern Conference – and manager Bruce Arena was quick to praise the performance of his backline.
The Boston outfit have had no such problems at the other end of the pitch, as they have found the back of the net in 13 of their 14 league matches so far, last failing to score against Nashville at the start of May.
Arena's men have a four point lead at the top of the Eastern Conference, and sit second in the overall table behind Seattle Sounders.
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Down the other end of the standings, Inter Miami are bottom of both the Eastern Conference and the overall table, but have at least one game in hand over all the teams above them.
This is due to their fixture against New York Red Bulls on Saturday being postponed because of severe weather conditions.
Phil Neville's first season in charge is not going to plan, and he has seen his team lose their last five matches in a row and score just once in that time. No team in either conference has scored fewer goals than Inter Miami (nine) in 2021.
The Herons have only registered two wins all season – both of which came away from home against Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati – and have clocked up just one point from their five home games so far.
Perhaps it is therefore not good news that Wednesday's match is their first of three successive games at the DRV PNK Stadium, as they also host Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal before July ends.
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Team News
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New Inter Miami signings Nick Marsman, Kieran Gibbs and Indiana Vassilev were all denied debuts when the game against New York Red Bulls was postponed, but they could be in line to feature on Wednesday.
Gonzalo Higuain has been used off the bench in his last two appearances and has not started since the end of May, but Phil Neville may finally turn to him from the off as the veteran Argentine is the only player in the Miami squad to score more than once this season.
Full-back Kelvin Leerdam is representing Suriname at the Gold Cup, while Gregore is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season against CF Montreal.
Gustavo Bou's strike against Atlanta was his sixth goal in seven matches for New England Revolution. He only needs one more to match his tally for the entirety of last season.
Revs are still without goalkeeper Matt Turner and striker Tajon Buchanan, who are both away at the Gold Cup with the USA and Canada respectively.
DeJuan Jones was forced off injured against Atlanta, making him a doubt for this game. Christian Mafla, who has just returned from an injury of his own, could replace him.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Marsman; Shawcross, Figal, Gonzalez, Gibbs; Matuidi, Ulloa; Shea, Chapman, Morgan; G. Higuain
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Knighton; Bye, Farrell, Kessler, Mafla; Bunbury, Gil, Polster, McNamara; Buksa, Bou
We say: Inter Miami 1-2 New England Revolution
Inter Miami desperately need some luck to fall their way, but they are unlikely to get it against the Eastern Conference leaders. Revs are back on track following victory against Atlanta and should have too much for a Herons side low on confidence.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
