Champions League
Jul 28, 2026 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Tynecastle Park
  • yellowcard Albert Vallci 61'
  • goal Simon Seidl 64'
  • goal Emran Soglo 68'

Hearts vs Sturm Graz - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Hearts

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jul 21, 2026 7.30pm
Sturm Graz 4 - 0 Hearts

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jul 21, 2026 7.30pm
Sturm Graz 4 - 0 Hearts

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 45.36%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 29.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 0-1 (7.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result

Hearts 45.36% (-0.03)
Draw 25.55% (-0.02)
Sturm Graz 29.09% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.06% (+0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.25% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 25.75% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 49.52% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 50.48% (-0.09)
Over 3.5 27.39% (+0.07)
Under 3.5 72.61% (-0.07)
Over 4.5 15.68% (+0.08)
Under 4.5 84.32% (-0.08)

First Half Winner

Hearts 28.96% (+0.02)
Draw 42.93% (-0.03)
Sturm Graz 28.11% (+0.01)

Team To Score First

Hearts 48.62% (+0.08)
No Goal 7.3% (+0.04)
Sturm Graz 44.08% (-0.11)

Corners

Over 8 62.41% (+0.19)
Equal 8 10.84% (+0.07)
Under 8 26.76% (-0.25)
Over 9 50.95% (+0.11)
Equal 9 11.45% (+0.09)
Under 9 37.59% (-0.19)
Over 10.5 39.85% (+0.03)
Under 10.5 60.15% (-0.03)

Hearts Goals

Over 1.5 42.75% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 57.25% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 18.64% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 81.36% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 6.67%
Under 3.5 93.33%

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5 63.61%
Under 0.5 36.39%
Over 1.5 29.94% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 70.06% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 11.26% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 88.74% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 3.79% (+0.07)
Under 3.5 96.21% (-0.07)

Score analysis

Hearts 45.36%
Draw 25.54%
Sturm Graz 29.09%
Hearts
1-0 @ 10.65% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.5%
2-0 @ 7.81% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.28% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 4.16% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.5% (-0.01)
Other @ 6.46% (-0.03)
Total : 45.36%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.1% (-0.08)
0-0 @ 7.3% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 4.9% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.03% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.21% (+0.02)
Total : 25.54%
Sturm Graz
0-1 @ 7.79%
1-2 @ 6.45% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 4.83% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.52% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.02%
2-3 @ 1.9% (+0.03)
Other @ 3.58% (+0.05)
Total : 29.09%

Head to Head

Champions League
Jul 21, 2026 7.30pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT Merkur Arena
  • Jon Gorenc Stankovic 4' goal
  • Jeyland Mitchell 50' goal
  • Luca Weinhandl 53' goal
  • Jon Gorenc Stankovic 56' yellowcard
  • Jürgen Heil 59' goal
  • yellowcard Oisin McEntee 47'
  • yellowcard Amadou Ba-Sy 86'