Following three consecutive draws, promoted Halmstads BK host Varbergs BoIS in a battle near the Allsvenskan basement on Monday.
The local rivals convene at Orjans Vall, having both picked up just two wins from their opening ten matches of the 2021 campaign, to leave them flirting with the drop zone.
Match preview
2020 Superettan champions Halmstad have found life back in the big time a challenge so far, having scored at a rate of less than one goal per game to sit only three points above the bottom three, which currently includes derby day opponents Varbergs.
Their resolutely traditional 4-4-2 setup has not proved easy to break down, though, as HBK have also conceded at under a goal per game and been defeated on just three occasions.
A commendable goalless draw with title-chasing Djurgarden last week - when the Stockholm club were unable to register a single on-target shot at Halmstad's goal - was a typically grim spectacle, with tactical fouls and negative play ultimately achieving the desired result.
That came on the back of a 1-1 draw at home to Hammarby following the summer break, before which Halmstad had improved to add five points from a possible nine to their top-flight tally.
With those hard-earned results keeping head coach Magnus Hagland's men within touching distance of the top half of a tightly-packed table, they now approach this derby with the prospect of a limited home crowd back in the stadium to cheer them on.
Up to 150 away fans will also be admitted, as the Allsvenskan continues the reopening of its long-closed doors, and despite neither side lighting up the final third this season, goals could be in store: the two most recent times the clubs have met at Orjans Vall ended in a 3-3 friendly draw and a 3-2 Halmstad win in the 2019 Superettan.
The visitors, who finished 11th last year upon their own return to the elite level of Swedish football, have endured a similarly trying start to this campaign, most recently losing 2-1 to AIK Stockholm at the Friends Arena last Saturday.
Joakim Persson's team sit second from bottom in the standings - posting just eight points from their ten league matches so far - and trail Halmstad by three points ahead of their Monday night clash.
Defensive instability has plagued Varbergs this term, as they are conceding an average of two goals per game; resulting in the second-worst defensive record in the division. The Halland County club have also fallen to defeat in each of their last three Allsvenskan road trips, shipping at least two goals in each of those outings.
A slim ray of light for the West Coast outfit, though, comes from the fact that they have at least registered on the scoreboard in each of their last nine league matches - not drawing a blank since the opening day of the season.
- L
- D
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
Team News
Halmstad are expected to name a similar if not unchanged team to the XI which bored Djurgarden into submission last week, particularly as striker Sedat Karim avoided further sanction for breaking Hjalmar Ekdal's nose with his elbow during the second half.
Right-sided midfielder Samuel Kroon may find his place under threat, though, should coach Magnus Haglund instead opt to start Ghanaian full-back Thomas Boakye ahead of Edvin Kurtulus on the flank in search of even greater defensive control.
Only long-term injury victim Phil Ofosu-Ayeh, who suffered a cruciate ligament injury earlier this year, is definitely sidelined for the hosts, who will line up in their customary 4-4-2 formation.
Varbergs, meanwhile, have both Albin Winbo and Robin Simovic unavailable for the derby due to suspension, with the latter likely to be replaced up front by Simon Adeji, who has scored three times in nine appearances this season.
Joint top-scorer alongside Adeji, former Borussia Dortmund midfielder Tashreeq Matthews is set to start on the wing after scoring in the defeat to AIK last weekend.
Halmstads BK possible starting lineup:
Safqvist; Kurtulus, Baffo, Johansson, Bengtsson; Kroon, Allansson, Al-Ammari, Sundevall; Karim, Antonsson
Varbergs BoIS possible starting lineup:
Lukic; Lindner, Stanisic, Zackrisson; Mensah, Le Roux, Ejupi, Liljenback; Matthews, Adeji, Boman
We say: Halmstads BK 1-0 Varbergs BoIS
Having stabilised themselves either side of the summer break by grinding out a string of stubborn results, Halmstad can edge out their rivals on Monday by holding firm and snatching a goal through a set piece or counter-attack.
Varbergs are set to see their struggles continue, with a season-long scrap for survival now a very real prospect for Joakim Persson's side.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Halmstads BK win with a probability of 44.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Varbergs BoIS had a probability of 27.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Halmstads BK win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.73%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Varbergs BoIS win it was 0-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
