Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Bahrain had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.86%) and 1-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Bahrain win was 1-0 (11.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.