Girona face another tough challenge in the Copa del Rey as the second-tier Spanish side host Rayo Vallecano from La Liga on Saturday in the round of 16.
The Catalonian team upset top-flight side Osasuna 1-0 in the previous round, while Los Vallecanos blanked Mirandes by the same score.
Match preview
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Heading into this matchup, Girona are feeling pretty good about themselves, unbeaten in eight consecutive games played in all competitions.
Gironistes are in a close race in the Segunda Division with a chance to climb into the top flight, currently in sixth and holding down the final playoff qualifying spot with the possibility of a promotion.
Should Girona make it into La Liga next season, they will want to prove that they can compete at the same level and intensity as the top teams in Spain, and they made a good first impression this month, holding Osasuna off the scoresheet in a game where Michel saw his side play an incredibly well-disciplined match, holding the opposition to three shots on target.
They are one of only three teams remaining in this competition who do not play in the top flight (Sporting Gijon and Atletico Baleares are the others), and they have looked well-prepared and organised in all three of their matches played in the Copa del Rey.
Girona have been sharp from the opening whistle in their last few matches, scoring four goals in their previous three games played in all competitions, three of which came in the opening half.
Michel seems to favour a lineup that features five at the back, which has been a potent formula for success recently thanks to some good work from their central defenders, plus some dynamic and energetic play from their wing-backs.
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If Girona want to learn a thing or two about how to make it into the top flight and see immediate results, they might want to use the Rayo Vallecano campaign as a blueprint, as the other Madrid side have shown that they belong with the big boys of La Liga.
This is a team with a good mix of youth and experience, currently in seventh place in the top flight after earning a promotion last season through a playoff when they finished sixth.
Their manager, Andoni Iraola, the second-youngest coach in La Liga, has been known to perform miracles at this competition in past years, guiding Segunda side Mirandes to the semi-finals of the 2019-20 Copa del Rey, defeating Sevilla and Villarreal along the way.
While it would hardly be a shock to see them make it into the last eight of this competition, seeing as they are facing a second-tier side, should they win this weekend, it would be the first time that this club made in into the quarter-finals since the 2001-02 season.
Throughout the 2021-22 campaign Vallecano have had a high-risk, high reward approach, seemingly relying on athleticism and commitment to balance out what can be at times some chaotic tactics.
Vallecano are direct and immediate in the way that they play, using some extreme attacking width and verticality to try and break through opposing defensive lines, often utilising the pace of their fullbacks Fran Garcia and Ivan Balliu to try to stretch and overload their opponent's backline.
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Team News
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Midfielder David Junca was the hero for Girona in their round of 32 clash, scoring the winner, while goalkeeper Juan Carlos stopped the only three shots that he faced as he replaced Adrian Ortola, who picked up a clean sheet in their second-round victory against Huesca (1-0).
Ramon Terrats is out with a tibia fracture and Oscar Urena continues to recover from a hamstring injury that has kept him off the field since early December.
Cristhian Stuani has not started a single game for his team in this competition, but he is perhaps their biggest scoring threat, as he leads the Segunda Division with 15 goals at the moment.
Los Vallecanos midfielder Martin Merquelanz will be out for the foreseeable future after suffering a sprained knee, while Unai Lopez is not expected to return until the end of the month because of a hamstring injury.
Los Franjirrojos have to be happy that Oscar Trejo came back to the club this season, as the team captain leads La Liga in assists with nine, while Alvaro Garcia and Radamel Falcao lead the way when it comes to goals in the top flight this season for Real, as each of them has scored five times.
Andres Martin notched the only goal in their round of 32 victory over Mirandes, while Trejo set up Ivan Balliu for the equaliser in their 1-1 draw with Real Betis last Sunday.
Girona possible starting lineup:
Juan Carlos; Bueno, Juanpe, Espinosa, Martinez, Farres; Calavera, Kebe; Stuani, Bustos, Moreno
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Zidane; Garcia, Suarez, Maras, Hernandez; Valentin; Bebe, Rodrigues, Nteka, Balliu; Falcao
We say: Girona 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
Girona are in good form and fully deserved their victory in the previous round of this competition, but beating a side with the experience and quality of Vallecano might be too much to ask of them.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
