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Gibraltar national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage
Mar 30, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Victoria Stadium
Netherlands national football team

Gibraltar
0 - 7
Netherlands


Ronan (31'), De Barr (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Berghuis (42'), de Jong (55'), Depay (61', 88'), Wijnaldum (62'), Malen (64'), van de Beek (85')
Klaassen (38'), Gravenberch (90+3')

Preview: Gibraltar vs. Netherlands - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying clash between Gibraltar and Netherlands, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The Netherlands will aim to end the month on a high when they travel to Gibraltar for the third match of their World Cup Qualifying campaign in Group G.

Frank de Boer's men cruised past Latvia 2-0 last time out, whereas Gibraltar's woes continued with a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Montenegro on matchday two.


Match preview

Gibraltar's Reece Styche celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 27, 2021© Reuters

The Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar welcomes yet another one of Europe's big boys as the hosts attempt to win just their fifth-ever match on home soil, but the visits of Germany and Belgium down the years have ended with the 195th-ranked team shipping a combined 13 goals and scoring zero at the correct end of the pitch.

Julio Ribas's side were put to the sword 3-0 by Norway in their first game of qualification and were no match for Montenegro last time out, as Steven Jovetic scored the fourth and final goal in their 4-1 win over Gibraltar, who had remarkably levelled the scores through Reece Styche's penalty before the floodgates opened.

Rooted to the bottom of the standings alongside Latvia - the other team in the group without a point to their name from two matches - Gibraltar seem destined to finish in sixth place and only managed to pick up wins over San Marino and Liechtenstein last year.

Ribas did ring the changes considerably for their battle with Montenegro - a controversial decision seeing as their chances of picking up points on Tuesday are slim to none - and while topping their Nations League group leaves Gibraltar with an outside chance of making the playoffs, an appearance at the finals is surely nothing more than a pipe dream for the Llanis faithful.

Netherlands head coach Frank de Boer pictured on November 15, 2020© Reuters

Frank de Boer has not made many friends among Netherlands supporters during his stint in the dugout, but he would have been relieved to see his side overcome Latvia with ease after their humbling defeat to Turkey on matchday one.

The Oranje took to the pitch in front of 5,000 impassioned fans at the Amsterdam ArenA, and they were treated to a wonder strike from Steven Berghuis before the returning Luuk de Jong wrapped up the three points in the 69th minute, but that result was not enough to see them break into the top two of the group.

Turkey and Montenegro both eased to victories on the same evening to maintain their 100% starts to the group, so the Netherlands are already one step behind their adversaries in the race for a spot at Qatar 2022, and De Boer's spell in the hotseat would certainly come under threat if Gibraltar can somehow defy the odds on Tuesday.

Such a scenario is highly unlikely, though, as the Oranje have found the back of the net at least twice in their last four matches and have only suffered one defeat in seven, so while this is certainly a must-win game for the Netherlands, De Boer may be tempted to hand opportunities to his fringe players against the nation ranked 195th in the world.

Gibraltar have never locked horns with the Netherlands before, but any hopes of a monumental shock in this game are extremely unlikely to turn into a reality, as a whopping 181 places separate the two teams in the FIFA World Rankings ahead of Tuesday's battle at the Victoria Stadium.

Gibraltar World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • L
  • L

Gibraltar form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L

Netherlands World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • L
  • W

Netherlands form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W


Team News

Ajax Amsterdam's Ryan Gravenberch pictured in October 2019© Reuters

Gibraltar's James Bosio came off injured 51 minutes in against Montenegro and is not expected to take part here, so Blackburn Rovers defender Louie Annesley should return to the fold.

Further changes from the defeat to Montenegro could see Liam Walker and Tjay De Barr return higher up the field, while 38-year-old captain Roy Chipolina will marshal the defence against the Netherlands' formidable attack.

Netherlands goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen has left the camp due to injury, with Marco Bizot being called up in his place, and the AZ Alkmaar shot-stopper may feel optimistic about his chances of earning just a second cap for the national team here.

De Boer is expected to make significant alterations for this game, so the likes of Kenny Tete, Patrick van Aanholt and Joel Veltman will hope to grasp their opportunities in defence.

Ajax starlet Ryan Gravenberch and Atalanta lynchpin Marten de Roon are in contention to start in the engine room, while Manchester United outcast Donny van de Beek came on as a substitute against Latvia and will hope to earn a recall to the first XI here.

Donyell Malen and Steven Bergwijn are also options for change up front, but the veteran Ryan Babel could challenge the Oranje youngsters for a spot in De Boer's front three as well.

Gibraltar possible starting lineup:
Coleing; Sergeant, Chipolina, Wiseman, Barnett, Olivero; Walker, Annesley, Hernandez, Casciaro; De Barr

Netherlands possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Tete, De Ligt, Veltman, Van Aanholt; Gravenberch, De Roon; Berghuis, Van de Beek, Bergwijn; Malen


SM words green background

We say: Gibraltar 0-5 Netherlands

Gibraltar will relish the chance to test their skills against some of Europe's most exciting talents, but this game is surely a foregone conclusion from the first whistle. The Netherlands are expected to utilise their impressive squad depth and will have no problem easing to victory at the Victoria Stadium, so we are backing a five-star performance and five-goal triumph for De Boer's side this week.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 67.11%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 10.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 0-1 with a probability of 18.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (16.08%) and 0-3 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.06%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.


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Netherlands' Luuk de Jong celebrates scoring their second goal with Memphis Depay on March 27, 2021
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