Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 44.69%. A win for FC Pyunik had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest FC Pyunik win was 0-1 (9.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.