Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Riga FC had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Riga FC win was 1-2 (7.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.