Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 52.47%. A draw had a probability of 26.37% and a win for Hamrun Spartans had a probability of 21.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.82%) and 1-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%) , while for a Hamrun Spartans win it was 1-0 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.