Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Sassuolo had a probability of 20.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.04%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Sassuolo win it was 1-2 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.