Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 49.45%. A win for Neuchatel Xamax had a probability of 27.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.29%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Neuchatel Xamax win was 1-2 (7.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.