Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 48.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.02% and a win for Chelyabinsk had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.04%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%) , while for a Chelyabinsk win it was 1-0 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.