Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sogdiana win with a probability of 48.78%. A win for Chelyabinsk had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sogdiana win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Chelyabinsk win was 0-1 (7.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.