Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 40.49%. A win for Torpedo Moskva had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Torpedo Moskva win was 0-1 (8.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.