Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.81%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.