/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Farselog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fbarlog.png)
-
Bukayo Saka
13'
-
Bukayo Saka
13'
-
Leandro Trossard
27'
-
Kai Havertz
36'
-
Ben White
41'
-
Kai Havertz
43'
-
Kai Havertz
43'
-
Leandro Trossard
55'
-
Leandro Trossard
55'
-
Leandro Trossard
78'
-
Leandro Trossard
78'
-
Fabio Vieira
89'
-
Fabio Vieira
89'
-
Robert Lewandowski
7'
-
Robert Lewandowski
7'
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Raphinha
34'
-
Raphinha
34'
-
Ronald Araujo
37'
-
Ferran Torres
88'
-
Ferran Torres
88'
Arsenal vs Barcelona - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Team News
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Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F29%2Farspla.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F17%2Fxavi.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 40.61%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 36.79% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.8%) and 2-0 (5.07%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
Result
Arsenal
40.61%
▼
(-0.11)
Draw
22.59%
▲
(+0.05)
Barcelona
36.79%
▲
(+0.05)
Both Teams to Score:
66.86%
▼
(-0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5
66.15%
▼
(-0.25)
Under 2.5
33.84%
▲
(+0.25)
Over 3.5
44.3%
▼
(-0.29)
Under 3.5
55.69%
▲
(+0.28)
Over 4.5
25.7%
▼
(-0.25)
Under 4.5
74.29%
▲
(+0.24)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5
82.61%
▼
(-0.15)
Under 0.5
17.39%
▲
(+0.15)
Over 1.5
52.19%
▼
(-0.26)
Under 1.5
47.8%
▲
(+0.25)
Barcelona Goals
Over 0.5
80.93%
▼
(-0.10)
Under 0.5
19.07%
▲
(+0.09)
Over 1.5
49.33%
▼
(-0.15)
Under 1.5
50.66%
▲
(+0.15)
Score analysis
Arsenal
40.61%
Draw
22.59%
Barcelona
36.79%
Arsenal
2-1
@
8.41%
▲
(+0.01)
1-0 @ 5.8% ▲ (+0.05)
2-0 @ 5.07% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 4.06% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.96% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 2.14% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.78% ▼ (-0.03)
4-0 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 4.19%
Total : 40.61%
1-0 @ 5.8% ▲ (+0.05)
2-0 @ 5.07% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 4.06% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.96% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 2.14% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.78% ▼ (-0.03)
4-0 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 4.19%
Total : 40.61%
Draw
1-1
@
9.61%
▲
(+0.06)
2-2 @ 6.97% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 3.32% ▲ (+0.05)
3-3 @ 2.24% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 22.59%
2-2 @ 6.97% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 3.32% ▲ (+0.05)
3-3 @ 2.24% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 22.59%
Barcelona
1-2
@
7.96%
▲
(+0.03)
0-1 @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.06)
0-2 @ 4.55% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 4.4% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.85% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.52% ▲ (+0.02)
1-4 @ 1.82% ▼ (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.59% ▼ (-0.02)
0-4 @ 1.04% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 36.79%
0-1 @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.06)
0-2 @ 4.55% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 4.4% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.85% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.52% ▲ (+0.02)
1-4 @ 1.82% ▼ (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.59% ▼ (-0.02)
0-4 @ 1.04% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 36.79%
Head to Head
Form Data
Build-up
Predicted Lineups