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Fortaleza
Brasileiro | Gameweek 21
Nov 14, 2020 at 10pm UK
Castelao
Sao Paulo

Fortaleza
2 - 3
Sao Paulo

David (15'), Paulista (74')
Felipe (53'), de Souza (88')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Gomes (40'), Luciano (61', 82')
Hernanes (56'), Nestor (72'), Pele (90+6'), Alves (90+8')

Preview: Fortaleza vs. Sao Paulo - prediction, team news, form guide

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between Fortaleza and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and form guide.

Fortaleza will be looking to avoid a fifth straight defeat in all competitions when they play host to Sao Paulo in Saturday's Brazilian Serie A clash.

In complete contrast, the visitors go into the game having won their last four in all competitions and are eight places above Fortaleza in the table.


Match preview

Newly-appointed Fortaleza manager Marcelo Chamusca must arrest his side's worrying slump as soon as possible, with the 54-year-old recently taking control of the reins for the third time from Rogerio Ceni.

This weekend's hosts will hope to have that new manager bounce feeling after a truly dismal few weeks for Fortaleza, with the Lion of the Pici suffering three defeats on the bounce in the Brazilian top flight following a promising start to proceedings.

Indeed, Fortaleza strung together an eight-match unbeaten run in the top flight before losing to Fluminense on November 1, with Ceni also witnessing his side suffer a 2-1 loss to Athletico Paranense before being replaced by Chamusca.

The new manager's first game in charge was not the start that Chamusca would have hoped for - Fortaleza once again found themselves of the wrong end of the scoreline against Bahia on Wednesday, and the Lion of the Pici would do extremely well to hand Chamusca his maiden victory of his third spell in charge against a high-flying Sao Paulo outfit.

Sao Paulo head coach Fernando Diniz pictured in November 2020© Reuters

The onus is firmly on Sao Paulo to deliver with the current fourth-placed outfit only three points below leaders Internacional, but with three games in hand.

Fernando Diniz's side are desperate to improve on last season's sixth-placed finish and are firmly on course to do just that, with Sao Paulo only suffering two defeats from 17 matches and conceding a league-low 15 goals in that time.

The six-time league champions have taken the spoils in six out of their last seven matches in all competitions, including top-flight victories over Flamengo and Goias this month, and Sao Paulo also have one foot firmly in the semi-finals of the Copa do Brasil as they beat Flamengo 2-1 in the first leg in midweek.

Diniz will no doubt be keeping that second leg in mind, but Sao Paulo can feel confident of extending their winning run to five games against a Fortaleza side still finding their feet under Chamusca.

Fortaleza and Sao Paulo last locked horns in the last-16 stage of the Copa do Brasil, with Diniz's men knocking out their opponents in an enthralling penalty shootout after a 5-5 aggregate scoreline, with Sao Paulo edging the spot-kicks 10-9.

Fortaleza Brasileiro form: WDWLLL
Fortaleza form (all competitions): WWLLLL

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form: DWWDWW
Sao Paulo form (all competitions): WDWWWW


Team News

Sao Paulo forward Brenner pictured in November 2020© Reuters

Fortaleza

Out: Juan Quintero (hip)
Doubtful: Michel (knee), Marcelo Boeck (other)

Sao Paulo

Out: None
Doubtful: Walce da Silva (ACL), Joao Rojas (other)


SM words green background

We say: Fortaleza 0-2 Sao Paulo

The unrelenting fixture schedule in Brazil does not appear to be taking its toll on Sao Paulo, who are steamrolling their way through competitions and are in a prime position to top the rankings. Chamusca's credentials are sure to be put to the test this weekend, but we think this is a challenge that will prove too difficult for Fortaleza's recently-appointed manager and are backing Sao Paulo to take the spoils comfortably.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


ID:421943:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect6413:
Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.


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