Fluminense entertain Ceara in the Brasileiro Serie A on Wednesday.
Surprisingly, the hosts find themselves behind their forthcoming opponents on goal difference after nine matches of the current campaign.
Match preview
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Indeed, after losing to Flamengo 4-2 on aggregate in the final of the state championship in May, Roger Machado is facing a degree of pressure in his role as Fluminense head coach.
The 46-year-old, who has previously managed Gremio and Palmeiras among others, was appointed in February, boasting a 50% win rate from his 30 matches in charge in all competitions so far.
While 13 points from nine matches is a disappointing return for a club of Fluminense's stature, Machado has guided them to the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores, with Paraguayan outfit Cerro Porteno representing a very winnable tie for them in that round.
However, focus must remain on climbing the Brasileiro table between now and then, with Andre's 91st-minute winner against rivals Flamengo on Sunday certainly helping out with regards to that, as well as relieving some of the tension Machado would understandably have been carrying ahead of the derby match.
A successive victory against Ceara on Wednesday could see Machado's side climb as high as fourth in the table depending on results elsewhere, so there is clearly plenty still to play for at this early stage of the season.
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Ceara, meanwhile, have a top-half position within their sights having finished 11th last season.
In Guto Ferreira they certainly have a manager boasting a wealth of experience, with the 55-year-old having managed the likes of Internacional, Chapecoense and Sport Recife in the past few years.
Ceara currently find themselves above all three of those sides in the table, illustrating the fine work Ferreira has done at Vozao since taking over in March 2020.
Indeed, they are currently on a five-match unbeaten run after comfortably dispatching Juventude 2-0 on Sunday.
Saulo Mineiro and Gabriel Lacerda had already provided the hosts with a two-goal cushion prior to Guilherme Castilho being sent off for the visitors in the 70th minute, with Ferreira's men to set to travel to Rio de Janeiro full of confidence on Wednesday.
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Team News
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Fluminense are likely to remain without Raul Bobadilla due to a calf injury, while Hudson will not play again this season due to an ACL injury.
Machado may opt to go with the same XI which narrowly prevailed against fierce rivals Flamengo at the weekend.
Ceara, meanwhile, will welcome Bruno Pacheco and Cleber back to their squad after the duo missed the win against Juventude due to suspension.
However, Ferreira is unlikely to restore them to the starting XI after his players earned a fine win at the weekend.
Vinicius Machado, Gabriel Dias, Luiz Otavio and Joao Ricardo all remain injury doubts, while Vitor Jacare joins Hudson out of action for the foreseeable future with an ACL injury.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Marcos; Xavier, Nino, Claro, Egidio; Yago, Martinelli; Paulista, Cazares, Teixeira; Fred
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Buiu, Messias, Lacerda, Ramos da Fonseca; Sobral, Marlon; Lima, Jorginho, Mendoza; Mineiro
We say: Fluminense 2-0 Ceara
We expect Fluminense to have taken plenty of confidence from their narrow win over fierce rivals Flamengo at the weekend.
Ceara will likely prove to be dogged opponents, but there is no doubting that the hosts possess greater quality to put their opponents to the sword and climb above them in the table in the process.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.72%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Ceara win was 0-1 (11.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
