Two sides who are virtually dead even in every statistical category in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A this year will face each other for the final time in this domestic campaign when America Mineiro head to the Maracana on Sunday to battle Fluminense.
The club from Rio de Janeiro were shut down by Juventude earlier this week, losing 3-1, but they remain ahead of America thanks to having one more win than them as Flu are currently in eighth.
Match preview
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In a long domestic campaign, things have a way of evening themselves out, which has been especially true for Marcao and his team, who have not won consecutive matches in their previous seven, answering a win with a defeat or the other way around each time.
On Wednesday, Flu had the bulk of the possession (68%) but were a little too passive with the ball, firing only one shot on target, despite stringing together more than twice as many passes as their opponents (615 to 305).
They tend to roll over when falling behind, particularly away from home where they have not been able to find an answer when trailing, losing each of their previous four road encounters by a combined score of 5-0.
However, with their next two fixtures at home, Marcao knows that it is an excellent opportunity to get back on track on a field that has been very good to them of late, unbeaten in four straight league games at the Maracana, including wins over Flamengo and Palmeiras.
Marcao has gone with a different formation in each of their matches played this month, with the more unconventional ones getting the job done, picking up a win over Sport Recife under a 4-2-2-2 set-up and beating Palestra with a 4-2-3-1.
For a team that relies a lot on some solid technical play out wide, it has to be said that they have not had enough quality contributions from the back end, particularly their fullbacks, who do not get involved as much as needed in transition and have not helped them create a lot of chances.
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After a pair of solid offensive performances, scoring three times versus Sport Recife and Gremio, America Mineiro failed to score at home for the first time since mid-October, drawing 0-0 with Atletico Goianiense earlier this week.
Losing 1-0 to one of their biggest rivals, Atletico Mineiro, in The Derby of the Masses earlier this month seems to have lit a fire in Marquinhos Santos and his team, who are unbeaten since that defeat, picking up seven out of a possible nine points.
Their back four have been aided by some exceptional play from Lucas Kal, who is traditionally their only holding midfielder and has done a tremendous job when it comes to covering the space in front of the back four and intercepting plenty of dangerous through balls.
With five games to go, this campaign in the top flight has already been a vast improvement from their previous two in 2016 and 2018, when they failed to last longer than a year before being relegated, picking up 28 and 40 points respectively.
They currently sit a mere four points behind Fortaleza for a guaranteed spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores qualifying stage and are in a comfortable position to continue their Serie A journey beyond this season.
Since their final match in June, this team have done a terrific job of getting results away from home, losing only three road matches, which is one reason why they are safely positioned in ninth, with a nine-point cushion above the relegation line.
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Team News
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Marcos Felipe kept his team in their game the last time they faced Coelho, stopping six of the seven shots that he faced, but unfortunately, his teammates could only muster two shots on target and were beaten 1-0.
Fred, who is tied with Yago Felipe and Lucca for second on the team in goals with three, missed their match on Wednesday following his expulsion in the previous game as he and Deyverson of Palmeiras were ejected deep into injury time last weekend.
Their right-back Samuel Xavier ceded his place to Lucas Calegari in midweek, but neither have contributed anything to this side in terms of goals or assists this year, while Nino, Andre, Nonato, Lucca and John Kennedy were put into the starting 11 rather than Luccas Claro, Wellington, Matheus Martinelli, Jhon Arias and Fred.
Ademir, who leads America in goals this season with nine, tallied the lone strike for either side back in August as they put an end to a five-match winless run at that time.
Their back four of Patric, Ricardo Silva, Eduardo Bauermann and Marlon were spectacular in their game against Goianiense earlier this week, allowing only one shot on target as Matheus Cavichioli picked up his ninth shutout of the campaign.
Juninho has already matched his goal output from a season ago with three thus far but has also shown his creative touch and vision with three assists.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
M. Felipe; M. Xavier, Braz, Nino, S. Xavier; Y. Felipe, Wellington; Paulista, Lucca, Arias; Kennedy
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Anderson, Silva, Eduardo, Marlon; Kal; Ademir, Juninho, Ale, Azevedo; Zarate
We say: Fluminense 1-1 America Mineiro
These teams are neck and neck in the table, having each allowed the same number of goals (34), while America have scored just a few more (35 to 31).
They are both intelligent sides who are clever in the middle of the field and can close off that space quickly, so given all of that, we anticipate that it will be a very tight game with neither side willing to take too many risks.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
