Both battling at either end of the League One table, three points will be fiercely contested at Highbury Stadium on Tuesday, as relegation-threatened Fleetwood Town host promotion contenders Sheffield Wednesday.
After Saturday's defeat to fellow playoff hopefuls Wycombe Wanderers, the visitors will arrive in Lancashire aiming to take advantage of their game in hand, while the hosts would all but secure survival with a win.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite finally faltering at the weekend, when their eight-match unbeaten run was brought to a halt at Adams Park, Sheffield Wednesday are still very much in contention for a top-six finish, which would earn them a shot at the playoffs.
Seeking promotion back to the Championship at the first attempt, the Owls have everything to play for even after they were leapfrogged in the League One standings by Wycombe.
Jordan Obita's second-half winner for the Chairboys saw them steal sixth spot, one point ahead of Darren Moore's men, but Wednesday can now go back above them by beating struggling Fleetwood.
Since a 1-0 win over the Cod Army back in August, it has been a rocky road for the South Yorkshire side to navigate in English football's third tier, but winning 10 of their last 12 home games has kept them in the hunt for promotion.
By contrast, they only hold the division's ninth-best record on the road, so will take nothing for granted when they cross the Pennines on Tuesday.
© Reuters
Having suffered successive home defeats when following a 2-1 loss to Accrington Stanley with a reverse at the hands of Oxford United, Fleetwood were in dire need of turning things around in front of their own fans on Saturday.
They were ultimately indebted to Joe Garner's dramatic late free kick, as the substitute striker scored a vital equaliser to snatch a draw against relegation rivals AFC Wimbledon at Highbury Stadium.
The veteran's strike two minutes from time lifted the Cod Army out of the bottom four on goal difference - sitting just above Gillingham - and their destiny remains in their own hands with two games to go.
Indeed, an against-the-odds victory in Tuesday's game would essentially guarantee survival for Stephen Crainey's side, thus sparing them a final-day decider at Bolton.
Nonetheless, not only do Fleetwood encounter opponents who require the points just as much, they are now winless in all but one of their last 19 matches - both losing nine and drawing times in the process - with only a 3-1 victory over rock-bottom Crewe earlier this month as the exception.
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
After making four changes to freshen up his team for their third game in a week, Sheffield Wednesday manager Darren Moore has stated that the quartet that did not feature against Wycombe will come back into contention for Tuesday's game.
Therefore, George Byers and Liam Palmer are set to be drafted back into the starting lineup, while Jack Hunt and Callum Paterson could also return.
Defender Dominic Iorfa may not be back before the end of the season after suffering another injury in training, but Sam Hutchinson recently returned to the fold and should start in the visitors' back three.
Harlee Dean has overcome a calf injury and is also available, but Josh Windass - who sustained a hamstring injury last month - is unlikely to be involved just yet.
Fleetwood, meanwhile, are again set to be without Harrison Holgate and Jordan Rossiter due to injury, and after Paddy Lane was stretchered off having also been red-carded at Gillingham last week, the Northern Ireland international is not expected to feature.
While Joe Garner will be hoping his heroics from the bench can now earn him a spot in the first XI, Ellis Harrison has notched three goals in his last six games and should spearhead the Cod Army's attack once again.
Fleetwood Town possible starting lineup:
Cairns; Macadam, Nsiala, Jules, Andrew; Batty, Camps, Pilkington; Hayes, Harrison, Harrop
Sheffield Wednesday possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Hutchinson, Storey, Palmer; Hunt, Dele-Bashiru, Bannan, Byers, Mendez-Laing; Berahino, Gregory
We say: Fleetwood Town 0-2 Sheffield Wednesday
Though Highbury Stadium will again be packed to see Fleetwood attempt to preserve their League One status against one of the division's heavyweights, enthusiasm alone may not prove enough for the hosts to pick up points.
As goals have slowed to a trickle over their past few matches, they may not possess the firepower required to blow their visitors off course, so Wednesday will take a step closer to cementing a playoff place.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheffield Wednesday win with a probability of 51%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 24.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheffield Wednesday win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (8.83%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sheffield Wednesday would win this match.
