High-flying Flamengo will be looking to close the gap on Brasileiro leaders Atletico Mineiro by claiming all three points away at Ceara on Sunday.
The last six meetings between the two sides have seen them win three games each, with the Black and Whites coming out on top in the last two encounters.
Match preview
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Ceara's impressive 11-game unbeaten run in the Brazilian top flight finally came to an end when they lost 3-1 away at Corinthians last weekend.
Despite having less than half the number of shots than their opponents, the hosts scored with all three of their efforts on target, condemning the Black and Whites to their first defeat since June 17 against Bahia.
Guto Ferreira's side have now slipped down to eighth in the Brasileiro standings, just outside the top six on goal difference.
Ceara have never finished higher than seventh in the top tier of Brazilian football, but they are certainly making the most of their fourth consecutive season in this division, after previously enduring a 17-year absence.
The Black and Whites face a difficult challenge on Sunday against an in-form Flamengo side, though they can take confidence into the game after winning this fixture last season. In fact, Ceara claimed their first ever home victory against the Scarlet-Black when they won 2-0 in September 2020; they had previously lost and drawn three games each on home soil.
With three of their next five league fixtures against teams currently in the relegation zone, a positive result this weekend could be the catalyst to help them bounce back and put together another good run of form heading into the second half of the season.
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Flamengo remain on course to win their second Copa Libertadores trophy in three years, as an emphatic 9-2 aggregate victory against Olimpia booked their place in the semi-finals.
A 4-1 first-leg win was followed by a 5-1 thrashing on home soil in the reverse fixture on Wednesday, with talismanic forward Gabriel Barbosa scoring four goals across the two legs.
With Flamengo's semi-final clash with Barcelona SC just over four weeks away, Renato Gaucho's men will now turn their focus back to the Brasileiro, as they look to salvage their title hopes.
Following a sluggish start to their title defence, a strong resurgence of form has seen the Scarlet-Black win 11 of their last 12 matches across all competitions. Five victories in this run have been in the Brasileiro, which has pushed them up to fifth in the table.
Although they have a 10-point gap to close on league leaders Atletico Mineiro, they do have two games in hand and there is still a long way to go in this campaign.
Flamengo have lost their last two games against Ceara by a 2-0 scoreline, but with their current impressive run of form, they will fancy their chances of securing their sixth successive away victory.
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Team News
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Ceara duo Vitor Jacare and Joao Ricardo are both ruled out with knee injuries, while Klaus (shoulder) and Gabriel Dias (knee) are doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Ferreira is unlikely to make too many changes to a settled side, despite losing last weekend, so the likes of Lima, Jorginho and Stiven Mendoza could all keep their places in the starting lineup.
Striker Cleber has scored just twice in 10 Brasileiro matches so far this campaign but he is set to continue up front ahead of Jael Ferreira.
As for Flamengo, Rene (thigh), Rodrigo Caio (muscle), Piris Da Motta (ankle) and Cesar (knee) are all ruled out with injuries, while Gustavo Henrique and Thiago Maia are self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
Midfielder William Arao and forward Bruno Henrique are also unavailable for selection as they are to serve a one-match suspension for accumulating too many yellow cards. Chelsea loanee Kenedy and Joao Gomes could be handed starts in their absence.
Barbosa was rested for the last league game, as Gaucho prioritised the second leg of their Copa Libertadores tie, but the 24-year-old forward – who has scored 19 goals in 21 appearances so far this term – is expected to start this weekend.
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Buiu, Messias, Otavio, Pacheco; Sobral, Marlon; Mendoza, Jorginho, Lima; Cleber
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Matheuzinho, Viana, Pereira, Luis; Gomes, Diego; Ribeiro, De Arrascaeta, Kenedy; Barbosa
We say: Ceara 1-2 Flamengo
Throughout this campaign, Ceara have made themselves difficult to beat, drawing eight times and keeping seven clean sheets, the joint-second most in the Brasileiro.
The Black and Whites could frustrate Flamengo on Sunday, as they did in their previous two encounters with the Scarlet-Black, however we expect the attacking quality of Barbosa and co to break through a robust Ceara backline to secure a narrow away victory for the reigning champions.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 63.17%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 16.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Ceara win it was 1-0 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
