MX23RW : Thursday, April 25 02:25:18| >> :120:40397:40397:
[monks data]
Fiorentina logo
Serie A | Gameweek 13
Nov 20, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Milan logo

Fiorentina
4 - 3
AC Milan

Duncan (15'), Saponara (45+1'), Vlahovic (60', 85')
Castrovilli (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ibrahimovic (62', 67'), Venuti (90+6' og.)
Hernandez (90+5')

Preview: Fiorentina vs. AC Milan - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Sitting seven points clear of the chasing pack upon Serie A's resumption, joint-leaders AC Milan continue their Scudetto quest with a trip to Tuscany, where they meet Fiorentina on Saturday evening.

Level on points with Napoli at the summit of the standings, the Rossoneri have won 10 of their 12 league games following a Milan Derby draw, while their inconsistent hosts have both won and lost half of their fixtures.


Match preview

AC Milan's Zlatan Ibrahimovic celebrates scoring their fourth goal with teammates on October 23, 2021© Reuters

As they resume a so-far successful start to the Serie A campaign at Stadio Artemio Franchi this weekend, Milan are not only within touching distance of the top, but also lead city rivals Inter by seven points after the Derby della Madonnina ended in a 1-1 draw earlier this month.

The two Milanese clubs shared the spoils following an intense affair at San Siro, where a goal for either side during the first half-hour - including one by ex-Rossonero Hakan Calhanoglu, who switched sides in the summer - determined the scoreline.

A previous run of seven straight league wins was only punctuated by a faltering showing upon their long-awaited return to the Champions League, and - after this weekend's tussle with Fiorentina - Stefano Pioli's men are now approaching four consecutive games against clubs in the bottom half of the standings.

On Saturday, Milan could become the second team in top-flight history to win 16 away games in a single calendar year, after Napoli racked up 18 four years ago. They are also one of just two sides yet to lose a single point from a winning position in Serie A so far this term, so are particularly ruthless once in front.

Furthermore, the Rossoneri will remember pulling off the double over their Tuscan counterparts last season, with a 2-0 home win being followed by March's 3-2 comeback win at the Franchi, when the now-departed Calhanoglu scored the winner.

Amid press reports that both Pioli and his on-field talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic are set to extend their stays at San Siro by signing new contracts, it is a settled squad that will now attempt to prolong an unbeaten run in Florence which stretches back to August 2015.

Dusan Vlahovic in action for Fiorentina in November 2021© Reuters

An unpredictable proposition under attack-minded coach Vincenzo Italiano, Fiorentina return from the international break with top scorer Dusan Vlahovic buoyed by playing a part in Serbia's progress to the World Cup finals next year.

The much-admired forward had previously netted a hat-trick in a 3-0 win over Spezia in the Viola's last home game, which followed his goal versus Cagliari a week earlier.

Those home successes against the league's lesser lights came in a spell during which Fiorentina also suffered 1-0 losses to Lazio and Juventus, and they continue a tricky run of fixtures this weekend.

Serie A's eighth-placed side are, though, set to avoid any other members of the top eight until after the winter break, so a streak of wins could be set to sustain their renaissance since Italiano took charge.

Nonetheless, the Tuscans must first tackle a team they have only beaten twice in their last 11 league meetings, losing on six occasions during that time. If they are to improve such a record, Vlahovic's input will surely be integral to their hopes, and his eight goals have effectively been worth nine points to Fiorentina this season - more than any other player has contributed in Serie A this term.

Fiorentina Serie A form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

AC Milan Serie A form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

AC Milan form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D



Team News

AC Milan coach Stefano Pioli on October 23, 2021© Reuters

Though a couple of key men remain sidelined for Milan this week, ex-Fiorentina coach Stefano Pioli has been boosted by the return to fitness of Alessio Romagnoli after an adductor problem forced him to miss the derby. He is set to start on the bench, but as Fikayo Tomori has been ruled out by a hip injury, so Matteo Gabbia and Simon Kjaer will instead start in central defence.

First-choice goalkeeper Mike Maignan and captain Davide Calabria are still out of action, though, so Ciprian Tatarusanu and Pierre Kalulu should deputise for the absent pair.

After an injury-hit start to his Rossoneri career, surprise summer signing Junior Messias is nearing a return and could be passed fit to appear from the bench; adding to his fifteen minutes played so far in the famous red and black shirt.

Up front, Zlatan Ibrahimovic gets the nod ahead of Olivier Giroud, while Alexis Saelemaekers will hope to return to the first XI after being dropped for the draw with Inter.

Fiorentina, meanwhile, are currently suffering a defensive crisis similar to that recently experienced by their visitors and will be forced to line up using their 13th different selection in as many league games.

Head coach Vincenzo Italiano's hand has, this time, been forced by the circumstances, because Nikola Milenkovic must serve a suspension for his dismissal versus Juventus and Lucas Martinez Quarta is also banned. Not only that, but injury has befallen back-up defender Matija Nastasic, so Igor and full-back Lorenzo Venuti are expected to comprise a makeshift central pairing in the hosts' back four.

There is some good news for the Viola, though, as Nicolas Gonzalez has recovered from a COVID-19 infection which kept the summer signing in isolation for over two weeks. Having passed protocols on his return to fitness, the ex-Stuttgart winger should play a part from the bench - bolstering a front three led by the irrepressible Dusan Vlahovic.

Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Odriozola, Venuti, Igor, Biraghi; Bonaventura, Torreira, Castrovilli; Callejon, Vlahovic, Saponara

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Tatarusanu; Kalulu, Kjaer, Gabbia, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Ibrahimovic


SM words green background

We say: Fiorentina 2-2 AC Milan

Injury concerns at the back may undermine their cause, but Fiorentina play an enterprising brand of football when the opportunity arises, and can take confidence from a positive home record which features two recent wins by a 6-0 aggregate scoreline.

Milan, of course, are of a different calibre than Cagliari and Spezia, but the Rossoneri may be held again this weekend due to their hosts' impressive attacking options, which have seen them average two goals per game on Florentine soil.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



ID:470465:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect12699:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 38.84%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 35.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Game History

How you voted: Fiorentina vs AC Milan

Fiorentina
14.3%
Draw
22.0%
AC Milan
63.7%
168
Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
AC Milan's Franck Kessie in action against Lazio on September 12, 2021
Read Next:
How Tottenham could line up with Kessie, Vlahovic
>
Sports Mole Logo
Enter your email address to subscribe to Sports Mole's free match previews newsletter! Updates are sent twice a week.
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
10am
Blanch
Nadal
10am
Cachin
Ofner
10am
Elahi Galan
Bautista-Agut
10am
Gasquet
Sonego
10am
Hanfmann
Mensik
10am
Koepfer
Carballes Baena
10am
Kovacevic
Medjedovic
10am
Lajovic
Monteiro
10am
Machac
Ruusuvuori
10am
Michelsen
Fonseca
10am
Nishioka
Auger-Aliassime
10am
O'Connell
Arnaldi
10am
Purcell
Giron
10am
Ramos-Vinolas
Kotov
10am
Tabilo
Cobolli
10am
Zhizhen
Kecmanovic
10am
Azarenka
Maria
10am
Eala
Cirstea
10am
Annie Fernandez
Potapova
10am
Gauff
Rus
10am
Keys
Camelia-Begu
10am
Podoroska
Navarro
10am
Karolina Schmiedlova
Jabeur
10am
Swiatek
Wang
10am
Baez
Van Assche
10am
Coric
Zverev
10am
Martin Etcheverry
Shapovalov
10am
Humbert
Van De Zandschulp
10am
Hurkacz
Draper
10am
Marozsan
Cerundolo
10am
Paul
Klein
10am
Rublev
Bagnis
10am
Altmaier
Fils
10am
Darderi
Fritz
10am
Griekspoor
Daniel
10am
Munar
Struff
10am
Musetti
Seyboth Wild
10am
Navone
Rune
10am
Shevchenko
Alcaraz
10am
Alexandrova
Krueger
10am
Andreeva
Noskova
10am
Bejlek
Kalinskaya
10am
Boulter
Montgomery
10am
Bronzetti
Rybakina
10am
Collins
Danilovic
3pm
Cristian
Krejcikova
10am
Dolehide
Kalinina
10am
Garcia
Wang
10am
Linette
Sabalenka
10am
Pavlyuchenkova
Saville
10am
Sorribes Tormo
Svitolina
10am
Vekic
Sakkari
11.30am
Arango
Yastremska
11.30am
Osaka
Samsonova
11.30am
Ostapenko
Bouzas Maneiro
1pm
Haddad Maia
Errani
2.30pm
Lourdes Carle
Kudermetova
2.30pm
Mertens
Stephens
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter Milan33275179186186
2AC Milan33216664392569
3Juventus331810547262164
4Bologna331711548262262
5Roma32167957381955
6Atalanta BCAtalanta321661059372254
7Lazio33164134235752
8Napoli331310105041949
9Fiorentina32138114536947
10Torino33111393129246
11Monza331110123543-843
12Genoa33912123540-539
13Lecce33811143048-1835
14CagliariCagliari33711153656-2032
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona33710163144-1331
16Empoli3387182648-2231
17Udinese32416123048-1828
18FrosinoneFrosinone33610174063-2328
19SassuoloSassuolo3368193965-2626
20Salernitana3329222670-4415


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!