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FA Cup | First Round Replays
Nov 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Lner Community Stadium

York City
2 - 1
Chester

John-Lewis (5', 66')
Akinyemi (39'), Stockdale (85'), John-Lewis (89')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Glendon (71')
Glendon (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between York City and Chester FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

York City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Fylde 0-2 York City
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League

Chester FC

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Darlington 3-2 Chester
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Chester FC had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Chester FC win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for York City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for York City.

Result
York CityDrawChester FC
38.79% (-1.122 -1.12)25.71% (-0.149 -0.15)35.5% (1.264 1.26)
Both teams to score 55.16% (0.714 0.71)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.05% (0.825 0.82)48.95% (-0.832 -0.83)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.96% (0.74 0.74)71.03% (-0.748 -0.75)
York City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.19% (-0.221 -0.22)24.8% (0.214 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.61% (-0.305 -0.31)59.38% (0.298 0.3)
Chester FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.36% (1.155 1.16)26.64% (-1.163 -1.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.12% (1.507 1.51)61.87% (-1.515 -1.52)
Score Analysis
    York City 38.79%
    Chester FC 35.5%
    Draw 25.7%
York CityDrawChester FC
1-0 @ 9.21% (-0.377 -0.38)
2-1 @ 8.5% (-0.116 -0.12)
2-0 @ 6.42% (-0.305 -0.31)
3-1 @ 3.95% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-0 @ 2.99% (-0.161 -0.16)
3-2 @ 2.61% (0.033 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.38% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.04% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 38.79%
1-1 @ 12.18% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-0 @ 6.61% (-0.228 -0.23)
2-2 @ 5.62% (0.107 0.11)
3-3 @ 1.15% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.7%
0-1 @ 8.74% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.06% (0.202 0.2)
0-2 @ 5.78% (0.18 0.18)
1-3 @ 3.55% (0.2 0.2)
0-3 @ 2.55% (0.159 0.16)
2-3 @ 2.48% (0.125 0.13)
1-4 @ 1.18% (0.102 0.1)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 35.5%

How you voted: York City vs Chester

York City
68.3%
Draw
17.1%
Chester FC
14.6%
41
Head to Head
Nov 4, 2023 3pm
First Round
Chester
0-0
York City
John-Lewis (54')
Apr 26, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 35
Chester
0-1
York City
John-Lewis (68')
Oct 23, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 10
York City
1-0
Chester
Beck (42')
Mar 20, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 28
Chester
0-0
York City
Dec 5, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 6
York City
2-1
Chester
Bunn (31'), Wright (69')
Weeks (58')