FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK

Vicarage Road

Watford
2 - 1
Chesterfield

Rajovic (76'), Dele-Bashiru (90+5')
Kone (38'), Hoedt (45+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Quigley (28')
Quigley (26'), Cook (27'), Banks (45+1'), Naylor (52'), Boot (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Watford and Chesterfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions

Last Game: Plymouth 3-3 Watford
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Chesterfield

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Chesterfield 3-2 Solihull
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in National League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 54.07%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Watford in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Watford.

Result
Watford	Draw	Chesterfield
54.07% ( 0.06)	22.1% ( 0.01)	23.82% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 60.14% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.9% (

-0.15)

39.1% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.57% (

-0.16)

61.42% (

0.15)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.51% (

-0.04)

14.49% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.52% (

-0.06)

42.47% (

0.06)

Chesterfield Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.33% (

-0.14)

29.66% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.29% (

-0.17)

65.7% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Watford 54.07%

Chesterfield 23.82%

Draw 22.09%

Watford	Draw	Chesterfield
2-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.28% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.03% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 3.25% Total : 54.07%	1-1 @ 10.08% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.09%	1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 23.82%