Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Fulham had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.27%). The likeliest Fulham win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Fulham would win this match.