Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 66.67%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 16.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.59%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.