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FA Cup

Leeds logo
FA Cup | Third Round Replays
Jan 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Elland Road
Cardiff City logo

Leeds
5 - 2
Cardiff

Gnonto (1', 36'), Rodrigo (34'), Bamford (71', 76')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Robinson (84', 90+3' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's FA Cup clash between Leeds United and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leeds United

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds
Friday, January 13 at 8pm in Premier League

Cardiff City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Cardiff 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 54.69%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 21.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 0-1 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.

Result
Leeds UnitedDrawCardiff City
54.69% (0.086000000000006 0.09)23.31% (-0.074000000000002 -0.07)21.99% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 53.67% (0.20999999999999 0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.42% (0.291 0.29)46.58% (-0.295 -0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.15% (0.271 0.27)68.85% (-0.27500000000001 -0.28)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.09% (0.13500000000001 0.14)16.91% (-0.139 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.03% (0.243 0.24)46.97% (-0.247 -0.25)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.59% (0.14400000000001 0.14)35.41% (-0.148 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.83% (0.151 0.15)72.17% (-0.154 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Leeds United 54.69%
    Cardiff City 21.99%
    Draw 23.3%
Leeds UnitedDrawCardiff City
1-0 @ 10.64% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.46% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.82% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 5.6% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.02% (0.028 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.58% (0.026 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.49% (0.015 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.34% (0.018 0.02)
5-1 @ 0.92% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 54.69%
1-1 @ 11.04% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 5.99% (-0.074 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.1% (0.025 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.3%
0-1 @ 6.22% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-2 @ 5.74% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 3.23% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.99% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.76% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.12%
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 21.99%

How you voted: Leeds vs Cardiff

Leeds United
83.3%
Cardiff City
16.7%
102
Head to Head
Jan 8, 2023 2pm
Third Round
Cardiff
2-2
Leeds
Philogene-Bidace (24'), Ojo (31')
Sang (9'), Bagan (35'), Wintle (83')
Bagan (80')
Rodrigo (65'), Perkins (90+3')
Gnonto (27'), Struijk (28'), Greenwood (70'), Wober (90+6')
Jun 21, 2020 12pm
Cardiff
2-0
Leeds
Dec 14, 2019 3pm
Leeds
3-3
Cardiff
> Match Report
Feb 3, 2018 3pm
Leeds
1-4
Cardiff
Bamba (54' og.)
Berardi (26')
Berardi (45')
Paterson (9'), Hoilett (41'), Morrison (45'), Pilkington (88')
Madine (35'), Ralls (45'), Pilkington (79'), Grujic (82')
Sep 26, 2017 7.45pm
Cardiff
3-1
Leeds
Zohore (28', 59'), Hoilett (37')
Roofe (67')
Phillips (23'), Cooper (39')
Cooper (45')
> Match Report