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FA Cup | Second Round Qualifying Replays
Sep 17, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
New Manor Ground

Ilkeston
0 - 1
Hereford

FT(HT: 0-1)
Rooney (40')
Coverage of the FA Cup Second Round Qualifying Replays clash between Ilkeston and Hereford United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ilkeston

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Hereford 1-1 Ilkeston
Saturday, September 14 at 3pm in FA Cup
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Hereford United

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Hereford 1-1 Ilkeston
Saturday, September 14 at 3pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 54.1%. A win for Ilkeston had a probability of 23.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.37%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Ilkeston win was 2-1 (6.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hereford United would win this match.

Result
IlkestonDrawHereford United
23.76% (0.408 0.41)22.14% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)54.1% (-0.401 -0.4)
Both teams to score 59.94% (0.545 0.55)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.66% (0.491 0.49)39.34% (-0.49299999999999 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.32% (0.512 0.51)61.68% (-0.513 -0.51)
Ilkeston Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.15% (0.608 0.61)29.84% (-0.61 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.07% (0.73 0.73)65.93% (-0.732 -0.73)
Hereford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.44% (0.036999999999992 0.04)14.56% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.38% (0.076000000000001 0.08)42.61% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Ilkeston 23.76%
    Hereford United 54.1%
    Draw 22.13%
IlkestonDrawHereford United
2-1 @ 6.12% (0.074000000000001 0.07)
1-0 @ 5.25% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-0 @ 3.18% (0.034 0.03)
3-1 @ 2.47% (0.07 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.38% (0.071 0.07)
3-0 @ 1.28% (0.035 0.03)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 23.76%
1-1 @ 10.12% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 5.9% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
0-0 @ 4.35% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-3 @ 1.53% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 22.13%
1-2 @ 9.75% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-1 @ 8.37% (-0.182 -0.18)
0-2 @ 8.07% (-0.164 -0.16)
1-3 @ 6.27% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 5.18% (-0.098 -0.1)
2-3 @ 3.79% (0.057 0.06)
1-4 @ 3.02% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-4 @ 2.5% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.83% (0.03 0.03)
1-5 @ 1.16% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-5 @ 0.96% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 54.1%

Head to Head
Sep 14, 2024 3pm
Second Round Qualifying
Hereford
1-1
Ilkeston
Ceesay (64')