Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.