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Europa League

Sporting Lisbon
Europa League | Third Qualifying Round
Sep 24, 2020 at 8pm UK
Estádio José Alvalade
Aberdeen logo

Sporting Lisbon
1 - 0
Aberdeen

Tomas (8')
Vietto (30'), Tomas (64')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ferguson (90+3')

The Match

Match Report

Derek McInnes' team missed out on a home tie against LASK to reach the group stage.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 52.72%. A win for Aberdeen had a probability of 25.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Aberdeen win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting LisbonDrawAberdeen
52.72%21.71%25.56%
Both teams to score 63.6%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.56%35.44%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.52%57.47%
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.35%13.65%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.16%40.84%
Aberdeen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.66%26.34%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.52%61.48%
Score Analysis
    Sporting Lisbon 52.73%
    Aberdeen 25.56%
    Draw 21.71%
Sporting LisbonDrawAberdeen
2-1 @ 9.51%
1-0 @ 7.16%
2-0 @ 7.13%
3-1 @ 6.31%
3-0 @ 4.73%
3-2 @ 4.21%
4-1 @ 3.14%
4-0 @ 2.36%
4-2 @ 2.1%
5-1 @ 1.25%
5-0 @ 0.94%
4-3 @ 0.93%
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 52.73%
1-1 @ 9.55%
2-2 @ 6.34%
0-0 @ 3.6%
3-3 @ 1.87%
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 21.71%
1-2 @ 6.37%
0-1 @ 4.8%
0-2 @ 3.2%
1-3 @ 2.83%
2-3 @ 2.82%
0-3 @ 1.42%
1-4 @ 0.95%
2-4 @ 0.94%
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 25.56%