Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 55.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 18.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a BATE Borisov win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sheriff Tiraspol would win this match.

Result
Sheriff Tiraspol	Draw	BATE Borisov
55.7% ( 0.01)	25.93% ( -0)	18.37% ( -0)

Both teams to score 41.12% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.52% (

-0.01)

60.48% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.4% (

-0.01)

80.6% (

Sheriff Tiraspol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.12% (

21.88%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.87%

55.13%

BATE Borisov Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.64% (

-0.01)

47.35% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.25% (

-0.01)

82.75% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Sheriff Tiraspol 55.7%

BATE Borisov 18.37%

Draw 25.93%

Sheriff Tiraspol	Draw	BATE Borisov
1-0 @ 15.74% 2-0 @ 11.96% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.06% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.72% 3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0) Other @ 2.75% Total : 55.7%	1-1 @ 11.77% 0-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.34% ( -0) Other @ 0.45% Total : 25.93%	0-1 @ 7.75% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.4% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.9% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 2.23% Total : 18.37%