Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 55.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a BATE Borisov win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sheriff Tiraspol would win this match.