Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 51.4%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Sheriff Tiraspol had a probability of 23.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Sheriff Tiraspol win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nice would win this match.