Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Aris Limassol had a probability of 33.36% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Aris Limassol win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.