Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Partizani Tirana had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Partizani Tirana win was 0-1 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.