Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 51%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for SSC Farul had a probability of 23.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.72%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a SSC Farul win it was 1-0 (7.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.