Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for RB Leipzig in this match.