Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 43.41%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.