Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 48.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 25.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.3%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a BATE Borisov win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.