UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 7, 2022 at 8pm UK

Orange Vélodrome

Marseille
2 - 1
PAOK

(Marseille win 3-1 on aggregate)

Gerson (13'), Payet (45')
Gerson (76'), Sampaoli (85'), Kamara (90'), Dieng (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-0)

El Kaddouri (48')
Biseswar (73'), Kurtic (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Marseille and PAOK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

Last Six:

Last Game: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Saturday, May 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint-Germain	38	54	86
2	Marseille	38	25	71
3	Monaco	38	25	69

PAOK

Last Six:

Last Game: PAOK 2-0 Panathinaikos
Tuesday, May 17 at 6pm in Greek Superleague

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Olympiacos	25	34	65
2	PAOK	25	24	50
3	AEK Athens	25	13	43

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for PAOK had a probability of 31.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest PAOK win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	PAOK
41.58%	26.69%	31.73%

Both teams to score 51.05%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.19%

53.81%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.72%

75.28%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.46%

25.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.61%

60.39%

PAOK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.56%

31.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.18%

67.81%

Score Analysis

Marseille 41.58%

PAOK 31.73%

Draw 26.69%

Marseille	Draw	PAOK
1-0 @ 10.95% 2-1 @ 8.66% 2-0 @ 7.48% 3-1 @ 3.94% 3-0 @ 3.4% 3-2 @ 2.28% 4-1 @ 1.35% 4-0 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.36% Total : 41.58%	1-1 @ 12.68% 0-0 @ 8.03% 2-2 @ 5.01% Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.69%	0-1 @ 9.29% 1-2 @ 7.34% 0-2 @ 5.37% 1-3 @ 2.83% 0-3 @ 2.07% 2-3 @ 1.93% Other @ 2.89% Total : 31.73%