UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Last 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 17, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

St. Jakob-Park

Basel
1 - 2
Marseille

(Marseille win 4-2 on aggregate)

Ndoye (63')
Chalov (26'), Burger (34'), Ndoye (76'), Tavares (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Under (74'), Rongier (90+3')
Sampaoli (38'), Peres (70'), Mandanda (86'), Balerdi (90+4'), Gerson (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Basel and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

Last Six:

Last Game: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Saturday, May 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint-Germain	38	54	86
2	Marseille	38	25	71
3	Monaco	38	25	69

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Basel had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-0 (11.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Basel	Draw	Marseille
33.72%	28.57%	37.71%

Both teams to score 45.97%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.57%

60.43%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.44%

80.57%

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.52%

33.48%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.89%

70.11%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.11%

30.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.82%

67.18%

Score Analysis

Basel 33.71%

Marseille 37.7%

Draw 28.56%

Basel	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 11.31% 2-1 @ 7.27% 2-0 @ 6.19% 3-1 @ 2.65% 3-0 @ 2.26% 3-2 @ 1.56% Other @ 2.47% Total : 33.71%	1-1 @ 13.29% 0-0 @ 10.34% 2-2 @ 4.27% Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.56%	0-1 @ 12.14% 1-2 @ 7.81% 0-2 @ 7.14% 1-3 @ 3.06% 0-3 @ 2.79% 2-3 @ 1.67% Other @ 3.09% Total : 37.7%