Conference League
Aug 13, 2026 5.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Tammelan Stadion
  • Stanislav Baranov 64' goal
  • goal Justas Lasickas 70'
  • yellowcard Mladen Devetak 87'

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ilves

All competitions
Conference League
Last game
Aug 6, 2026 7.45pm
Rijeka 1 - 0 Ilves

HNK Rijeka

All competitions
Conference League
Last game
Aug 6, 2026 7.45pm
Rijeka 1 - 0 Ilves

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 35.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 (9.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.

Result

Ilves 37.55% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 26.86%
HNK Rijeka 35.62% ▼ (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.92% ▼ (-0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 26.71% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 48.56% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 51.44% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 27.13% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 72.87% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 4.5 15.13% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 4.5 84.87% ▲ (+0.06)

First Half Winner

Ilves 22.84% ▲ (+0.13)
Draw 46.23% ▼ (-0.09)
HNK Rijeka 30.93% ▼ (-0.04)

Team To Score First

Ilves 39.29% ▲ (+0.01)
No Goal 8.01% ▲ (+0.03)
HNK Rijeka 52.7% ▼ (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 56.25% ▲ (+0.11)
Equal 8 11.63%
Under 8 32.13% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 9 44.54% ▲ (+0.09)
Equal 9 11.7% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 9 43.75% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 10.5 33.73% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 10.5 66.27% ▼ (-0.08)

Ilves Goals

Over 1.5 36.72% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 63.28% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 14.99% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 85.01% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 5.12% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.88% ▼ (-0.02)

HNK Rijeka Goals

Over 0.5 68.2% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 0.5 31.8% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 35.2% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 1.5 64.8% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 2.5 14.15% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 85.85% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 3.5 4.78% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 95.22% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Ilves 37.54%
Draw 26.87%
HNK Rijeka 35.6%
Ilves
1-0 @ 9.59% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 8.01% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 6.33% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 3.58% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 3.01% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 4.87% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 37.54%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.29% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 8.01% ▲ (+0.03)
2-2 @ 5.19% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 26.87%
HNK Rijeka
0-1 @ 9.12% ▼ (-0.02)
1-2 @ 7.58% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 6.13%
1-3 @ 3.21% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.83%
2-3 @ 2.2% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 4.53% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 35.6%

Head to Head

Conference League
Aug 6, 2026 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stadion HNK Rijeka
  • Branko Pavic 11' yellowcard
  • Niko Jankovic 16' goal
  • Alfonso Barco 50' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jesse Kilo 27'
  • yellowcard Jardell Kanga 75'
  • yellowcard Bamba Abdoul Goudouss 90'+2'