Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 53.48%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for FK Zalgiris had a probability of 20.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a FK Zalgiris win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.