Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 60.93%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 18.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 1-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a FC Winterthur win it was 1-2 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.