Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FK Zalgiris win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Basel had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a FK Zalgiris win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Basel win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.