Preview: Estudiantes vs Flamengo - prediction, team news, lineups

Estudiantes will welcome Flamengo to the Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi in La Plata on Thursday for the first leg of their Copa Libertadores semi-final tie, with the hosts looking to make home advantage count against the reigning Brazilian heavyweights.

Flamengo head into the contest on the back of a victory over Fluminense that preserved their lead at the top of the Brasileirao, while Estudiantes were held to a draw by Central Cordoba and remain outside the Clausura playoff qualification zone. This will be the fifth meeting between the sides since September 2025, with Flamengo having edged last year's quarter-final tie on penalties, and both teams now face a fresh test with defensive absences for the Argentine side and key midfielders missing for the visitors.

Match preview

Estudiantes arrive at the semi-final stage with a more solid record in the Libertadores than on the domestic front. In the Clausura, they have accumulated 14 points from 12 matches and are still attempting to close in on the qualification zone, following a run that also included disappointments in the Supercopa Internacional and the Copa Argentina.

In the 2-2 draw with Central Cordoba in the latest round, the Pincha showed the ability to react but once again struggled with defensive lapses. After conceding a turnaround in just two minutes, they regained control and created opportunities to win but squandered important chances in the second half.

Their continental campaign has been more consistent, with just one defeat in 10 matches leading up to the quarter-finals. The side progressed in the round of 16 after drawing with Universidad Catolica in La Plata and winning 3-0 in Chile, demonstrating an ability to compete with confidence away from home.

In the quarter-finals, Estudiantes eliminated Corinthians with impressive defensive efficiency. After a 1-1 draw in La Plata, Alexis Castro scored the winning goal in a 1-0 victory in Itaquera, while the defensive unit conceded just three shots from inside the box.

Flamengo arrive in fine form, sustained by greater consistency across the Brasileirao and Libertadores. Their latest victory extended their unbeaten run to nine matches, comprising seven wins and two draws during that period.

Without Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Jorge Carrascal and Lucas Paqueta have taken on greater responsibility in the creative department. The derby victory demonstrated how the pair can alternate roles, with Paqueta dropping deeper to aid build-up play and Carrascal attacking more advanced spaces to increase their presence in the box.

In the Libertadores, the Rubro-Negro boast impressive numbers, with seven wins and three draws in 10 matches leading up to the quarter-finals. The side have conceded just five goals in the tournament and have also competed well away from home, combining defensive solidity with the ability to accelerate when spaces open up.

The victory over Independiente del Valle underlined this quality. Flamengo won 2-0 in Quito despite intense pressure and, in the second leg, responded after falling behind and being reduced to 10 men, with Arrascaeta scoring the equaliser that sealed the tie at 3-1 on aggregate.

The recent head-to-head record reinforces the pattern of closely contested encounters. In the 2025 quarter-finals, Flamengo won 2-1 at the Maracana, but Estudiantes returned the favour with a narrow victory in La Plata and took the tie to penalties, where the Brazilians prevailed 4-2 thanks to two saves from Agustin Rossi.

In the group stage of this edition, there was a 1-1 draw in Argentina and a 1-0 Flamengo victory in Rio, meaning all four recent meetings have been separated by no more than one goal in normal time.

Estudiantes Copa Libertadores form:

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Estudiantes form (all competitions):

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Flamengo Copa Libertadores form:

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Flamengo form (all competitions):

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Team News

Estudiantes will be forced into significant changes at the back, with Tomas Palacios and Leandro Gonzalez Pirez both suspended. Marcos Rojo, signed on October 9, is expected to form the centre-back pairing alongside Santiago Nunez, with Gaston Benedetti on the left and Eros Mancuso occupying the right.

Gabriel Neves and Jalil Elias remain unavailable, while Eric Meza is still a doubt. Alexis Castro is also a concern due to a lower-back complaint but remains in contention to start; in attack, Guido Carrillo and Tiago Palacios appear to be the main options up front, with Joaquin Correa, formerly of Botafogo, available as an alternative.

For Flamengo, Jorginho is suspended following his red card in the quarter-final second leg, while Arrascaeta remains sidelined after undergoing wrist surgery. Ayrton Lucas and Evertton Araujo have made progress in their recoveries but are not expected to travel to Argentina.

Danilo will also miss out after sustaining two fractures to his jaw in a collision with goalkeeper Fabio. The defender required surgery and is expected to be absent for approximately one month, reducing Leonardo Jardim’s options when assembling the defensive setup.

Saul Niguez emerges as the leading candidate to partner Erick Pulgar, with Lucas Paqueta operating further forward. Pedro remains in contention for a starting place leading the attack, though Bruno Henrique also features as an alternative, while Nicolas de la Cruz is another strong option to provide a different dynamic in midfield.

Estudiantes possible starting lineup:

Fernando Muslera; Eros Mancuso, Santiago Nunez, Marcos Rojo and Gaston Benedetti; Ezequiel Piovi and Alexis Castro; Baltasar Rodriguez, Tiago Palacios and Joaquin Tobio Burgos; Guido Carrillo. Manager: Alexander Medina.

Flamengo possible starting lineup:

Agustin Rossi; Guillermo Varela, Leo Ortiz, Leo Pereira and Alex Sandro; Erick Pulgar, Saul Niguez and Lucas Paqueta; Jorge Carrascal, Samuel Lino and Pedro. Manager: Leonardo Jardim.

We say: Estudiantes 1-1 Flamengo

Estudiantes have the tools to disrupt Flamengo’s build-up play in La Plata, particularly through a high press and protection of the edge of the box. The changes in Flamengo’s midfield could reduce their early fluidity and make the contest more balanced than the difference in quality might suggest.

On the other hand, the individual quality within the Rio club’s squad offers pathways to respond even during spells of reduced control. The projection points towards an evenly matched encounter, leaving the outcome entirely open heading into the second leg at the Maracana.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.